Tuesday, April 03, 2007

March 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 2.65 (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
February 2007: 3.0
January 2007: 2.77

Last year, March 2006: 1.06.

Overall daily average to date is 2.38. Total US dead as of today: 3257.

Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 215.

Previous military/police fatality rates
February 2007: 150
January 2007: 91

Last year, March 2006: 191.
Total Iraqi military dead: 6395.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.

Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1674

February 2007: 1381
January 2007: 1,711

Last year, March 2006: 901.

To-date civilian total, begining in March 2005: 27,086. Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now seven months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.9 deaths daily.

Iraqi military fatality rates may be creeping up, but we need another month or two to establish a trend. As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as a year ago. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

UPDATE: It's worth mentioning that these stats give no indication that the troop escalation in Iraq has accomplished anything. Two months is a little early to draw a conclusion, but there's nothing encouraging so far in the data.

UPDATE 2: Maybe not the best post for a comedy link, but still: Bush Refuses To Set Timetable For Withdrawal Of Head From White House Banister

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