Friday, July 01, 2005

Volcanoes and betting on global warming

One of the problems with my attempted betting over global warming is that rare, random events like a large volcanic eruption might cause a large temperature swing and mess up the bet. The point of betting after all is to demonstrate whether global warming is occurring (and whether each side believes what it is saying), not whether random events like large eruptions will occur at a certain point in the future.

Here's my fix to the problem - a three-year reset into the future for the bet period from the time of any large eruption occurring in the last three years of the bet. For example, say someone bets against me and says significant global warming won't happen in the 2005-2025 time period. In 2024, a large eruption occurs. Betting period gets reset three years from the eruption, so it's from 2007 to 2027.

Large eruptions make things cooler, so this is just protecting my side of the bet. I'm open to a similar provision in case a strong El Nino creates an unusually hot year in the last three years of the bet.

Defining "large volcanic eruption" and "strong El Nino" might take some work, but I think it's doable, especially by reference to the Mount Pinatubo eruption in the early 90's, and the strong El Nino in 1998.

Now I just need to find global warming denialists who will put their money where their mouths are. The mouths aren't scarce, but the money is.

keywords: science, global warming, bet

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.