Sunday, July 01, 2007

June 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 3.6 (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
May 2007: 4.26
April 2007: 3.9
Last year, June 2006: 2.55.

Overall daily average to date is 2.47. Total US dead as of today: 3580.

Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 196.

Previous military/police fatality rates

May 2007: 198
April 2007: 300
Last year, June 2006: 132.
Total Iraqi military dead: 7086.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.


Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1146

May 2007: 1782
April 2007: 1521
Last year, June 2006: 738.
To-date civilian subtotal, (stats begin only in March 2005): 34,030.

Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now ten months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average American/foreign rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.29 deaths daily.

As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as a year ago, and three times worse than in 2005. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

Five months have passed since the troop escalation began, with no indication in these statistics that it has accomplished anything, except possibly as a contributor to higher US military casualties, with no trend yet for Iraqi military and police.

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