Wednesday, May 02, 2007

April 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 3.9 (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
March 2007:
February 2007: 3.0

Last year, April 2006: 2.73.

Overall daily average to date is 2.41. Total US dead as of today: 3355.

Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 158.

Previous military/police fatality rates
March 2007: 215
February 2007: 150

Last year, April 2006: 201.
Total Iraqi military dead: 6551.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.

Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1521

March 2007: 1674
February 2007: 1381

Last year, April 2006: 808.

To-date civilian total, begining in March 2005: 28,583. Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now eight months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.29 deaths daily.

As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as a year ago, and three times worse than in 2005. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

Three months have passed since the troop escalation began, with no indication in these statistics that it has accomplished anything.

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