Monday, July 24, 2006

Climate betting by Car Bobter?

Over at Stoat, an anonymous commenter claiming to be a paleoclimatologist and "of course" a skeptic of anthropogenic global warming says he/she has been regularly winning bets on 1:1 odds that global temperatures won't exceed the 1998 average (a year where temps went way up because of El Nino).

I need to give this commenter a name. I have no idea who the person is, so I'll just use the name "Car Bobter". Bobter has a good idea in the form of serial betting, which if done in the form of increasing bet amounts would increase the confidence that the losing side will pay off the winning side.

I hope I can be forgiven for thinking maybe Bobter's story about betting isn't true, but I have posted comments at Stoat asking to join Bobter's betting club (without result). I've since learned that 2006 is looking like the sixth-warmest year on record - i.e., very warm, and additional proof of climate change, but unlikely to be warmer than 1998. I'll keep my 2006 bet offer open to Bobter for just a little while longer as part of a series of bets, but for anyone else, the first bet year will be 2007.

(I do recognize that given the randomly-high temps in 1998, the bet is somewhat chancy, but with enough years in the mix then I think 1:1 odds should work out okay for me.)

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