Sunday, June 03, 2007

May 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 4.26 (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
April 2007: 3.9
March 2007: 2.65
Last year, May 2006: 2.55.

Overall daily average to date is 2.46. Total US dead as of today: 3495.
Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 198.

Previous military/police fatality rates

April 2006: 300
March 2007: 215
Last year, May 2006: 150.
Total Iraqi military dead: 6903.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.

Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1782

April 2006: 1521
March 2007: 1674
Last year, April 2006: 969.
To-date civilian total, begining in March 2005: 33,034.

Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now nine months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.29 deaths daily.

As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as a year ago, and three times worse than in 2005. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

Four months have passed since the troop escalation began, with no indication in these statistics that it has accomplished anything, except possibly to show higher US military and Iraqi civilian casualties, with no trend yet for Iraqi military and police.

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