Wednesday, June 22, 2005

I'm a LongBettor on global warming

Or at least a LongPredictor. is a charity site where you can make up a bet or take up someone else's bet about the future. It solves the problem of guaranteeing that someone you don't know who bets against you will actually pay up, except it does so by requiring you both forward the money to the Long Bets Foundation, which then gives it to the charity of the winner's choice. So much for me making money off of global warming denialists.

But, it does give me the chance to quote myself (somebody's got to do it). Here's my bet:

"I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 degrees Celsius over the next 20 is more accurate than the Lindzen/denialist position that temperatures are as likely to decrease as increase. Choosing a prediction that is halfway between the consensus and the denialist viewpoints, I predict that temperatures will increase by at least .15 degrees Celsius from 2005 to 2025. This bet is open to anyone who wants to accept it."

The idea is to choose the midpoint between my position and a denialist's position; this seems like a fair one. Now I just need someone to take me up on it - until then, I'm not a bettor, just a predictor.

keywords: science, global warming, bet

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