Wednesday, January 04, 2006

I will bet that temperatures will drop in 10 years, if...

...I am given 20:1 odds in my favor.

I am offering this bet for the benefit of my new conservative friends that I've made lately. I've gone to a number of conservative web sites that deny or question whether global warming is happening, and posted my standard offer to bet against people who take this position. This has turned out to be a great way to make new friends, as much discussion has ensued (for an example, see here starting at comment 25). Strangely though, no one seems interested in betting.

The standard bet that I offer is that I will give out 2:1 odds in their favor if temperatures drop instead of rise 10 years in the future. A common objection that I hear is that it is impossible to know whether temperatures will rise or fall, and therefore the fact that I am giving them favorable odds is meaningless. This new bet that I am offering, where I am taking the side that temperatures can drop, is meant to help them understand that it's their argument that's meaningless.

Presumably, they would also be willing to bet that temperatures will drop if given 20:1 odds. Their willingness to accept 20:1 odds while refusing 2:1 odds means that they think they actually do know something about what will happen in the future. They think that the odds of temperatures in 2016 being colder than today are greater than 5% but less than 33%. That's the only way to make sense of the betting propositions and their differing reactions to them. So in other words, they are admitting that the probability that temperatures will rise is greater than 67%. Sounds like they are on the side of global warming to me but are just unwilling to admit it, or to do anything about it.

(NOTE: I've recopied the previously-posted comments from the Blogger comment system to Haloscan. To view or post a comment, please click on the word "Comments" below the bottom of this post.)


  1. Anonymous6:12 AM

    I would like to take up your bet.
    I want to bet 10k.

    Points to discuss
    1. What and how are we to measure the change?

    2 How do we escrow the bet?

    3. How we we collect?

    You can email me the dets on the address I used to post this.

    many thanks

  2. There's no email address here for me to respond to. It could be a problem with how the comments are set up, they've been problematic lately.

    My email address is on the left side of my blog - please email me directly and we can start arranging details.

    I'm not clear which bet interests you, by the way.

  3. Anonymous3:33 AM


    Didn't hear from you and have been a way. I was the earlier poster wanting to take your bet.

    I am a professional better so I want to change the bet a little. You can do what you want with the winnings and I want to decide what I do with my money. Agreed?

    As I don't know who the fuck you are I won't to escrow with the good legal firm in the US. Choose one in Vegas where betting is legally recognized. As you are offering the bet I would expect you to take the legal costs. It's an accepted practice that the "offerer" always does.

    Please openly discuss the details I posted earlier as I want to get a handle on what/ where/ how we are going measure the weather.

    No fucking conditions on the deal like a volcano erupting or shit like that. You take the risk as I take the risk that that world is gunna get sandblasted by the sun or some such. In other words I don't want bells and whistles attached to this deal. After all I ave the moving average against me, so you too can live with a little risk, right.

    Liked the way you wanted to cover the bet and then trying claim the deniers are really closet warmers.

    As I see it this is the way you are trying to cover the bet.

    2:1 warming your offer
    20:1 cooling. you wanna take


    Someone takes you of the offer. You lose 20G on a 10G bet

    Someone gives the odds for cooling at 20:1 you place 10G if you can to make 200G

    In fact you only have to bet $1,000 to cover the 10G bet.

    Nice one there Brian.

    Brian, the truth of the matter is that a denier would shirk at the 20:1 odds. That’s not real football.

  4. Anonymous3:36 AM

    In fact you only have to bet $1,000 to cover the 10G bet.

    Should read

    In fact you only have to bet $1,000 to cover the 20G risk.


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