Showing posts with label monthly casualties. Show all posts
Showing posts with label monthly casualties. Show all posts

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Belated August 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 2.84 (the vast majority are Americans, but not including Iraqis)

Previous averages
July 2007: 2.87
June 2007: 3.6
Last year, August 2006: 2.13.

Overall daily average to date is 2.49. Total US dead as of today: 3781.
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Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 76.

Previous military/police fatality rates
July 2007: 232
June 2007: 196
Last year, August 2006: 233.
Total Iraqi military dead: 7448.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are significant undercounts.

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Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1598

Previous
July 2007: 1458
June 2007: 1146
Last year, August 2006: 2733.
To-date civilian partial total (stats begin only in March 2005): 37441.

Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends, especially in the short term.

Comments: Now twelve months in a row with American casualties above average; no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average for American/non-Iraqi foreign fatality rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.29 deaths daily.

As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as early 2006, and three times worse than in 2005. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

Seven months have passed since the troop escalation began, with no indication in these statistics that it has accomplished anything, except possibly as a contributor to higher US military casualties. These civilian statistics do not corroborate US military claims for a decrease in violence in areas covered by the surge - either these stats are completely useless, the US stats are completely useless, or the violence moved away from Baghdad and into other areas.

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

July 2007 Iraq casualties, and NY Times screws up

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 2.87 (the vast majority are Americans, but not including Iraqis)

Previous averages
June 2007: 3.6
May 2007: 4.26
Last year, July 2006: 1.48.

Overall daily average to date is 2.48. Total US dead as of today: 3659.
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Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 232.

Previous military/police fatality rates
June 2007: 196
May 2007: 198
Last year, July 2006: 132.
Total Iraqi military dead: 7333.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are significant undercounts.

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Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1441

Previous
June 2007: 1146
May 2007: 1782
Last year, July 2006: 1063.
To-date civilian partial total (stats begin only in March 2005): 35,597.

Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now eleven months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average for American/non-Iraqi foreign fatality rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.29 deaths daily.

As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as a year ago, and three times worse than in 2005. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

Six months have passed since the troop escalation began, with no indication in these statistics that it has accomplished anything, except possibly as a contributor to higher US military casualties, with no trend yet for Iraqi military and police.

Three of the last four months have had especially high British casualty rates, so we'll have to see if that continues.

The NY Times screw up is here:

BAGHDAD, July 31 — The death of a marine in western Iraq brought the American military death toll to 74 so far in July, on course to be the lowest monthly figure this year....


It's a terrible reporting job. First, the death toll is significantly worse than the four-year average, so playing it as good news is ridiculous. Second, there's no point in trying to draw a trend based on a single month. I've seen right-wing bloggers do it countless times - take one month of slight improvement from an overall worsening trend, claim victory, and ignore the stats for months more until the process can repeat. The Times isn't keeping good company.

Sunday, July 01, 2007

June 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 3.6 (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
May 2007: 4.26
April 2007: 3.9
Last year, June 2006: 2.55.

Overall daily average to date is 2.47. Total US dead as of today: 3580.
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Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 196.

Previous military/police fatality rates

May 2007: 198
April 2007: 300
Last year, June 2006: 132.
Total Iraqi military dead: 7086.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.

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Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1146

Previous
May 2007: 1782
April 2007: 1521
Last year, June 2006: 738.
To-date civilian subtotal, (stats begin only in March 2005): 34,030.

Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now ten months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average American/foreign rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.29 deaths daily.

As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as a year ago, and three times worse than in 2005. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

Five months have passed since the troop escalation began, with no indication in these statistics that it has accomplished anything, except possibly as a contributor to higher US military casualties, with no trend yet for Iraqi military and police.

Sunday, June 03, 2007

May 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 4.26 (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
April 2007: 3.9
March 2007: 2.65
Last year, May 2006: 2.55.

Overall daily average to date is 2.46. Total US dead as of today: 3495.
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Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 198.

Previous military/police fatality rates

April 2006: 300
March 2007: 215
Last year, May 2006: 150.
Total Iraqi military dead: 6903.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.

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Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1782

Previous
April 2006: 1521
March 2007: 1674
Last year, April 2006: 969.
To-date civilian total, begining in March 2005: 33,034.

Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now nine months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.29 deaths daily.

As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as a year ago, and three times worse than in 2005. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

Four months have passed since the troop escalation began, with no indication in these statistics that it has accomplished anything, except possibly to show higher US military and Iraqi civilian casualties, with no trend yet for Iraqi military and police.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

April 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 3.9 (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
March 2007:
2.65
February 2007: 3.0

Last year, April 2006: 2.73.

Overall daily average to date is 2.41. Total US dead as of today: 3355.


Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 158.

Previous military/police fatality rates
March 2007: 215
February 2007: 150

Last year, April 2006: 201.
Total Iraqi military dead: 6551.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.


Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1521

Previous
March 2007: 1674
February 2007: 1381

Last year, April 2006: 808.

To-date civilian total, begining in March 2005: 28,583. Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now eight months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.29 deaths daily.

As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as a year ago, and three times worse than in 2005. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

Three months have passed since the troop escalation began, with no indication in these statistics that it has accomplished anything.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

March 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 2.65 (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
February 2007: 3.0
January 2007: 2.77

Last year, March 2006: 1.06.

Overall daily average to date is 2.38. Total US dead as of today: 3257.


Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 215.

Previous military/police fatality rates
February 2007: 150
January 2007: 91

Last year, March 2006: 191.
Total Iraqi military dead: 6395.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.


Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1674

Previous
February 2007: 1381
January 2007: 1,711

Last year, March 2006: 901.

To-date civilian total, begining in March 2005: 27,086. Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now seven months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average rate continues to move up, from a low of 2.9 deaths daily.

Iraqi military fatality rates may be creeping up, but we need another month or two to establish a trend. As before, civilian casualties remain terrible. The rate seems to hover around a level that is nearly twice as bad as a year ago. Neither we nor the Iraqis realized how good we had it back in 2005.

UPDATE: It's worth mentioning that these stats give no indication that the troop escalation in Iraq has accomplished anything. Two months is a little early to draw a conclusion, but there's nothing encouraging so far in the data.

UPDATE 2: Maybe not the best post for a comedy link, but still: Bush Refuses To Set Timetable For Withdrawal Of Head From White House Banister

Saturday, March 03, 2007

February 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 3.0 (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
January 2007: 2.77
December 2006:
3.74

Last year, February 2006: 2.07.

Overall daily average to date is 2.37. Total US dead as of March 2: 3166.


Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 150.

Previous military/police fatality rates
January 2007: 91
December 2006: 123

Last year, February 2006: 158.
Total Iraqi military dead: 4878.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.


Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1381

Previous
January 2007: 1,711
December: 1,629

Last year, January 2006: 688.

To-date civilian total, begining in March 2005: 25,360. Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now six months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. The overall average rate is now moving up, from a low of 2.9 deaths daily.

Iraqi military fatality rates continue to be low relative to 2005 data, possible evidence that they're sitting out the civil war. As before, civilian casualties remain terrible.

Friday, February 02, 2007

January 2007 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 2.81
(nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
December 2006:
3.74
November: 2.57

Last year, January 2006: 2.06.

Overall daily average to date is 2.36. Total US dead as of today: 3093.


Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 91.

Previous military/police fatality rates
December 2006: 123
November: 123

Last year, January 2006: 189.
Total Iraqi military dead: 6034.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.


Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1711

Previous
December: 1,629
November: 1,741

Last year, January 2006: 590.

To-date civilian total, begining in March 2005: 24,040. Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Now five months in a row with American casualties above average, no prior bad stretch lasted longer than three months. Continuing a trend found in recent months, Iraqi military fatality rates continue to be low, more evidence that they're sitting out the civil war. Also as before, civilian casualties remain terrible.

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

December 2006 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 3.74
(nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
November: 2.57

October: 3.52

Last year, December 2005: 2.19.

Overall daily average to date is 2.35. Total US dead as of today: 3003.


Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 123.

Previous military/police fatality rates
November: 123
October: 224

Last year, December 2005: 193.
Total Iraqi military dead: 5,937.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.


Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1,629

Previous
November: 1,741
October: 1,315

Last year, December 2005: 344.

To-date civilian total, begining in March 2005: 22,345. Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Four months in a row with American casualties above average, a first in the war. As before, Iraqi military fatality rates continue to be low, more evidence that they're sitting out the civil war. Also as before, civilian casualties remain terrible.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

November 2006 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate during the last month: 2.6
(nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis)

Previous averages
October: 3.52
September: 2.53

Last year, November 2005: 2.87.

Overall daily average to date is 2.32. Total US dead as of today: 2900.


Iraqi monthly military and police fatalities: 123.

Previous military/police fatality rates
October: 224
September: 150

Last year, November 2005: 176.
Total Iraqi military dead: 5823.

Note that I've seen media reports suggesting the Iraqi military casualty figures are signficant undercounts.


Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1,741

Previous
October: 1,315
September: 3,389

Last year, November 2005: 592.

To-date civilian total starting from March 2005: 20,754. Note that the civilian numbers are far less accurate than others (most likely to be greatly underestimated, or even ridiculously underestimated), but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Three bad months in a row for the Coalition is enough to identify a trend. As before, Iraqi military fatality rates continue to be low, more proof they're sitting out the civil war. Also as before, civilian casualties remain terrible.