Afghanistan's a mistake and I hope it works

After years of my saying that we should get out of Iraq and into Afghanistan, I'm now saying that putting the extra 30,000 troops in is a mistake. I'm ambivalent about my position, but I think a deeply corrupt, unpopular regime that is about as illegitimate as the Iranian one isn't going to be a good partner in nation-building.

OTOH, a Taliban reconquest is unacceptable too. I think the best option is to wait out the Karzai government, keeping it alive and in power in the major Afghani cities at the lowest cost in blood and treasure, until a competent government is in place. Kind of like the Soviet strategy in Afghanistan - hardly the greatest selling point, but as Matt Yglesias points out, we've got advantages that the Soviets didn't.

While I don't usually have a high opinion of Joe Biden, he had a great point that we're focusing on the wrong country by putting 95% of our money into Afghanistan relative to Pakistan. If minimizing our effort in Afghanistan could redirect some of it to Pakistan, all the better.

The long-term solution for Pakistan, as far as I can tell, is development (same answer I had before). Not a quick solution, but maybe Pakistani society will look at how India is doing so much better than they are, and get inspired/threatened enough to make a change.

A question for Bob Woodward

If this new, supersecret counterinsurgency technique is so game-changing in Iraq, why hasn't it been used in Afghanistan, where things have been deteriorating for over a year?

Maybe I'm too hard on Woodward, but he seems to be the David Broder of confidential sources. Broder takes the conventional wisdom on any subject and pronounces it like an amazing revelation, or possibly something he claims to have heard from a local yokel somewhere. Woodward's books on the Iraq war does the same thing with confidential sources whose information just mirrors conventional perception of whether the war's going well or badly, whether Bush is a good or bad leader, etc.

The utility of either journalist is limited. Maybe a slight edge for Woodward in providing sources for historical analysis, long after the fact.

Get out of Iraq so we can fix Afghanistan, redux

The meme is catching on, now at Talking Points Memo:

For Democrats opposed to the Iraq war who still fear a backlash for not being tough enough, advocating for more resources for the wars in Afghanistan and against global terrorism has the dual benefit of showing a stiff spine and pursuing the right policy.

How they'll spin the Iraq troop punt, two years from now

I forget where I read that the best term for the "surge" isn't escalation but a troop "punt" - the idea is to punt responsibility for the inevitable drawdown to the next president. The problem for Republicans is handling the moderate chance that the next president will be Republican.

So my prediction - if a Democrat wins, the failure in Iraq only became inevitable because of the new president's mistakes in not sticking it out in Iraq. If a Republican wins, then blame for failure and withdrawal in 2009 lies squarely at the feet of the responsible party - the Iraqi people, for whom the Republicans gave every possible advantage. Republicans will oppose withdrawal in 2009 done by a Democratic president, and support it if done by a Republican.

While that's the plan, it's hardly a strong political position. McCain has no choice but to follow the troop punt plan, given his pro-Iraq war position generally, and pray for a weak Democratic nominee. Senator Brownback (R-Crazy) is trying to create a little space between himself and an implosion in Iraq that could take down McCain. It'll be interesting to see the choices of the other major Republican candidates.

And meanwhile, shades of Tora Bora again as the Bush punt takes troops out of Afghanistan who would be fighting a resurgent Taliban. I'm sticking with my framing argument for Democrats and sane Republicans - the strategy should be get out of Iraq so we can go fix Afghanistan. The exact opposite of Bush's plan.

P.S. Thought I'd add this chart - first figure is Iraqi police/military fatalities, and the second is Iraqi civilian fatalities. See any sign that Iraqi security forces will move to stop sectarian violence?

Jan-06	189	590
Feb-06	158	688
Mar-06	191	901
Apr-06	201	809
May-06	150	969
Jun-06	132	738
Jul-06	217	1063
Aug-06	233	2733
Sep-06	150	3389
Oct-06	224	1315
Nov-06	123	1741
Dec-06	123	1629