I will bet that temperatures will drop in 10 years, if...

...I am given 20:1 odds in my favor.

I am offering this bet for the benefit of my new conservative friends that I've made lately. I've gone to a number of conservative web sites that deny or question whether global warming is happening, and posted my standard offer to bet against people who take this position. This has turned out to be a great way to make new friends, as much discussion has ensued (for an example, see here starting at comment 25). Strangely though, no one seems interested in betting.

The standard bet that I offer is that I will give out 2:1 odds in their favor if temperatures drop instead of rise 10 years in the future. A common objection that I hear is that it is impossible to know whether temperatures will rise or fall, and therefore the fact that I am giving them favorable odds is meaningless. This new bet that I am offering, where I am taking the side that temperatures can drop, is meant to help them understand that it's their argument that's meaningless.

Presumably, they would also be willing to bet that temperatures will drop if given 20:1 odds. Their willingness to accept 20:1 odds while refusing 2:1 odds means that they think they actually do know something about what will happen in the future. They think that the odds of temperatures in 2016 being colder than today are greater than 5% but less than 33%. That's the only way to make sense of the betting propositions and their differing reactions to them. So in other words, they are admitting that the probability that temperatures will rise is greater than 67%. Sounds like they are on the side of global warming to me but are just unwilling to admit it, or to do anything about it.

(NOTE: I've recopied the previously-posted comments from the Blogger comment system to Haloscan. To view or post a comment, please click on the word "Comments" below the bottom of this post.)