Betting on global warming

(This is an actively managed post and may change over time, a little different from my normal editing policy. I stand by all bet offers I've made that are available when contacted by potential betting partners.)

Below are some bets I'm willing to make on global warming, as in betting with actual money if someone wants to take me up on it:

• Successfully-arranged bet number one! With David Evans over 10-20 years, details here.
• A bet that sea level rise will continue over the next five years.
• The bet Richard Lindzen refused to take, after saying that there was a 50% chance that temperatures would drop over the next 20 years and that he was willing to bet on it: that temperatures will increase over the next 20 years, and if they don't, he gets a 2:1 payout.
• George Monbiot on BBC Radio offerring to bet a denialist 5,000 British pounds that temperatures will increase over the next 10 years.
• Paul Ehrlich's second bet offered to Julian Simon in 1995 that the years 2002-04 would be warmer than 1992-94 (Simon wisely declined). (this bet would obviously be adjusted to future years, say 2006-08)

(I am willing to sweeten the Ehrlich and Monbiot bets to reflect the denialist view that temperatures MIGHT go up, by giving them better odds than I get, say 2:1.)

• A proposed global warming bet that pays to charity at longbets.org.
• That randomly picked glaciers will retreat over a ten-year period.
• A bet for those who argue we're just going through another of the "natural" temperature cycles. Also, a bet that warming will accelerate in the next 10-20 years compared to the overall rate in the last century.
• That temperatures would not drop significantly 10 years after the anomalously-hot 1998 El Nino year.
• That the post-2005 hurricanes will be found to have become more intense partly due to anthropogenic global warming.
• For those who deny we have enough knowledge to place odds, think about this - I'll also bet temperatures will DROP in 10 years, if given 20:1 odds. If 20:1 sounds good to you but 2:1 doesn't, we've established your estimate of global warming.
• Successfully-arranged bet number two, except this time I'm on the cold side about Arctic ice not disappearing, with details here.

If some denialist is interested, please get in touch with me.

UPDATE: corrected odds originally offered to Lindzen from 3:1 to 2:1. For a 20 year bet, I'm willing to give 3:1 odds to my opponent, and I expect James Annan, who originated the bet, would be willing to do the same.

UPDATE 2: Elsewhere I offered to bet a right-wing radio host on global warming, and he backed down.

The arch-conservative Free Republic forum deleted my posting and banned me for offering to bet people on global warming.

UPDATE 3: I'm fixing a "bug" in the bets, that large volcanic eruptions at the end of the betting period will skew the results while telling us nothing about humanity's effect on climate. My fix is a three-year reset into the future for the bet period from the time of any large eruption occurring in the last three years of the bet. For example, say someone bets against me over global warming in the 2005-2025 time period. In 2024, a large eruption occurs. Betting period gets reset three years from the eruption, so it's from 2007 to 2027.

Large volcanic eruption would be anything equivalent to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, measured in terms of energy. I'm open to alternative definitions.

I'm also open to a similar fix for strong El Nino-type events, if any betting opponent wants to include it.

UPDATE 4: I'd love to take a bet similar to the one that James Annan finally arranged.

UPDATE 5: I deleted a very short-term (3 year) bet because there's too much noise in that data. I had figured that it would work out fine over time with many bets, but I no longer think I'm likely to find many denialists who are willing to bet me.

UPDATE 6: deleted a paragraph discussing the "natural warming" proponents, after figuring out a bet that should interest them.

UPDATE 7: I've challenged Senator James "Global Warming Is a Hoax" Inhofe to a bet.

UPDATE 8: Added sea level rise bet.

I'm also keeping a running list of blogs that I've challenged to a bet.

UPDATE 9: old comment thread to this post is saved here, but I recommend any new comments be added to this post, not the old thread.

UPDATE 10 (April 2012):  I don't think IPCC AR5 is going to make the call on current hurricanes yet, so I jumped the bet back one, and start in 2005 instead of 1995.  Someone should've taken me up on it beforehand.

keywords: science, global warming, bet