Sunday, March 20, 2011

So why is a partitioned Libya worse than a Qaddafi-ruled one?

I'm not getting the argument behind the fear of a partitioned Libya. The alternative is more Qaddafi, more oil purchases from Qaddafi, and more weapons sales to him.

In a partition, the rebels will continue to assemble a government and maintain oil sales, while Qaddafi can't. Eventually they'll take care of him. Given that we've created a no-fly/no-armor/no-artillery zone, if the rebels can't fight off infantry at this point, then they don't have the support and drive to maintain a revolution.

As for Josh Marshall saying no genocide=no humanitarian reason to intervene, I think the rebuttal argument makes itself.

It's definitely a roll of the dice, but doing nothing isn't such a great play either. And while eastern Libya has been a hotbed of Al Qaeda recruitment in the past, a chance at a more democratic society could help there, and meanwhile we're destroying every weapon in Libya that can shoot down aircraft.

3 comments:

  1. I don't get it either. It seems to be very much a std one - we keep on using it in those bits of Africa where we created unreal countries during colonial times, which rather naturally would revert back into smaller states.

    "Keep existing borders" is a deeply stupid policy that has killed innumerable people; I suspect we keep it out of fear.

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  2. I doubt the current split is stable, but I understand that Libya used to be three major tribal areas. If the people there decided they wanted to be three countries, that's up to them.

    I think a more likely and more positive outcome if democracy really arrives in the Arab world is Pan-Arab nationalism/federalism. Possibly all the beauty and efficiency that is the European Union government could be replicated. Sarcasm aside, it could help economic and political stability.

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  3. See Juan Cole and Lawyers Guns and Money for a good workout to these arguments both ways

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