(Original post here. Summary: people trying to criticize Al Gore set up a skewed bet against him on Intrade, which they are in the process of losing anyway.)
As current global temperatures continue being awful, the Intrade bet between exaggerated warming trends for a ridiculously short 3-year period and no warming clearly supports the high end warming at a 3:1 market ratio right now. A while after my first post on this subject, I contacted Andreas Grafe, one of the people who set up the bet and who works with climate denialist Scott Armstrong.
To Grafe's credit, he did respond to my first email. He says he never had an opinion on the climate issue and just wanted to set up a prediction market as part of his academic work on those markets. He also points out that Armstrong would only expect a slightly greater than 50% chance of winning based on a short time frame, and mentions a longer ten-year time frame on an imaginary-money market (Hubdub) that has now shut down.
However. No response to my pointing out that the IPCC didn't predict a short term rise of .03C/year in 1990, or the differences with modern IPCC predictions. He did say that they wanted but couldn't get a ten year period from Intrade, but I think and said that a three year period is so short to be virtually useless. Never heard back from my second email.
I'd hope that after the Climatebet crowing over "winning" the first 20 months of their bet, that Grafe would distance himself from their nonsense. Maybe he did a little bit, but if he wants to help with useful prediction markets, he needs something better than this.