Thursday, June 01, 2006

Denialists: Warming won't be bad (if you don't listen to us)

Global warming denialist/skeptic/minimalist/whatever Jason Steorts says global warming hero James Hansen agrees with the minimalist position, having "predicted 0.75 degrees of warming by 2050, an amount consistent with the low end of the IPCC scale—and, consequently, the low end of the IPCC’s predicted effects of global warming."

What do you know, a non-lie. Hansen says "Expected global warming by 2050 is between ½°C and ¾°C, i.e., a warming of about 1°F" (pdf, pg. 18). But wait, he adds some conditions that Steorts doesn't: "This alternative scenario has two components: (1) halt or reverse growth of air pollutants,specifically soot, O3, and CH4, (2) keep average fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the next 50 years about the same as today" (emphasis added).

What Steorts says will happen if we do nothing is what Hansen says could happen if we take some giant steps, which would require first of all that we stop listening to people like Steorts.

I've seen this trick before, attacking credible positions like the one taken by Think Progress. It's lame.

Oh, and Steorts' other shtick is that a failure to disagree with every other claim he makes is a concession that the claim is correct. I haven't bothered to check all his various claims, but he's not looking too good right now. All I can say is that if he wants to hire me to evaluate his work, or even asks very politely, then I'll think about it.

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