Bad news on global warming is less likely: a report that global warming might be twice as bad as originally thought is thought to be unlikely by people who know what they're talking about. I can't totally follow their argument, it has something to do with computer modelling not being validated against real data, but I trust these guys since they're actual scientists set up to respond to global warming skeptics. Their reaction in to the second comment indicates they think the original report is a good first step, but more work needs to be done.
Social Security privatization: Brad DeLong, as usual, has the best response on how Social Security "actual reform" should be done, with steps to eliminate the regressive cap on taxes from Social Security, and managed private accounts that are in addition to SS, not substituting for it. It's a little hard to understand unless you're as geeky as I am in following this debate, but it looks good to me. This post by Matt Yglesias suggests the Bushies might do something not all that bad (in my estimation), if the people who participate in the voluntary, partial privatization do not get the SS benefits as those who lack the financial resources to participate in it. I think Yglesias overlooks this possibility - we'll find out soon, maybe, what Bush will actually propose.