tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6803306.post4217282199285116136..comments2023-10-19T05:09:40.165-07:00Comments on Backseat driving: Modding what Gavin Schmidt said about the science-policy interface, slightly (UPDATED)Brianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6803306.post-28777388460335130852011-02-20T09:19:54.624-08:002011-02-20T09:19:54.624-08:00A factor of two might not sound like a lot, but ev...A factor of two might not sound like a lot, but every extra foot we have to build means a wider and bigger levee, and ultimately over 100 miles of levees (just a guess on length for our county, tho). And that's just one county. This translates into serious money.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6803306.post-20774454589164961662011-02-19T15:27:24.406-08:002011-02-19T15:27:24.406-08:00I agree that we don't know the exact answer. B...I agree that we don't know the exact answer. But I think that "truly open question" is too vague still, and gives to much to the denialists (I know: you didn't write that to be quote-mining proof, and you shouldn't). We're pretty sure that it will be greater than the 2-3 mm/yr we're currently seeing. And I've yet to see a sane estimate of more than 2 m in 100 years, which switfly narrows it down quite a lot. And you only want to know out to 50 years, which makes things easier. We could probably get it down to a factor of two for that period, which is massively less than the economic uncertainties.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6803306.post-91824839289090560352011-02-19T08:45:55.448-08:002011-02-19T08:45:55.448-08:00Hope my update helps: whether sea level is rising...Hope my update helps: whether sea level is rising isn't a question, but how much it rises is an important science question and policy question.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09301230860904555513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6803306.post-62550803948353528022011-02-18T01:55:56.826-08:002011-02-18T01:55:56.826-08:00I don't see how your example leaves you disagr...I don't see how your example leaves you disagreeing with Gavin. I agree entirely with the text you've bolded.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.com